(10-28-2011AP)
《遠見》戴立安10月17日接受《美聯社》專訪
即將離職的《遠見》民調中心主任戴立安說，在他的一份民調結果顯示反對黨候選人將勝出後，《遠見》決定將他的選舉民調部門關閉，是因為他的民調結果引發「風暴」。
戴立安沒有直接挑明選舉民調部門被關是因為政治因素介入，不過，站在反對陣營的自由時報注意到，馬辦負責人可能有對遠見施壓。
成立五年半的《遠見》選舉民調部門關閉一事引起的風波，顯示出民調人員在台灣要建立有公信力、又準確的民調時，所面對的挑戰。台灣民眾不太相信媒體公布的民調，因為他們認為這些媒體會扭曲調查結果，為其偏好的候選人助選。
台灣的三家主要報紙中，有兩家總是支持總統馬英九所屬的國民黨，另一家則是經常支持反對黨民進黨。遠見被認為是稍微偏向國民黨，不過它和前述報紙不同的是，《遠見》民調中心的調查結果廣被認為是公正、無偏見的。
戴立安在一場專訪內告訴美聯社，他無法確定馬辦是否施壓讓選舉民調部門關閉，不過他對整個事件，感到強烈的錯愕驚駭。
戴立安說：「公司管理階層說選舉民調引發太多風暴，所以他們決定要把這個部門關掉。」
「我們被關不是因為做不好。我們對自己的選舉調查模型深具信心。」
戴立安說，根據他的最新調查結果，反對黨民進黨主席、總統候選人蔡英文將會在明年一月十四日的總統大選以四到六個百分點勝出。這個差距仍在誤差範圍內。
遠見發言人王淑貞否認選舉民調部門被關是因為受到政治施壓，她說這純粹是商業考量。
王淑貞說：「我們公司自年初便開始改組，高階管理部門希望民調注重在社會、經濟和人文等遠見雜誌著重的議題。」
根據《自由時報》先前報導，馬辦經常質疑某家媒體的民調方式，並經常在這家媒體公布民調後毀謗中傷民調主持人。
《自由時報》也在另一篇評論表示，《遠見》選舉民調中心打烊，背後應有「政治性的不當外力」。
該報並未點名消息來源。底下附上英文Yahoo網址。
Taiwan pollster says his surveys ruffled feathers
http://news.yahoo.com/taiwan-pollster-says-surveys-ruffled-feathers-103531341.html
《遠見》戴立安10月17日接受《美聯社》專訪
即將離職的《遠見》民調中心主任戴立安說，在他的一份民調結果顯示反對黨候選人將勝出後，《遠見》決定將他的選舉民調部門關閉，是因為他的民調結果引發「風暴」。
戴立安沒有直接挑明選舉民調部門被關是因為政治因素介入，不過，站在反對陣營的自由時報注意到，馬辦負責人可能有對遠見施壓。
成立五年半的《遠見》選舉民調部門關閉一事引起的風波，顯示出民調人員在台灣要建立有公信力、又準確的民調時，所面對的挑戰。台灣民眾不太相信媒體公布的民調，因為他們認為這些媒體會扭曲調查結果，為其偏好的候選人助選。
台灣的三家主要報紙中，有兩家總是支持總統馬英九所屬的國民黨，另一家則是經常支持反對黨民進黨。遠見被認為是稍微偏向國民黨，不過它和前述報紙不同的是，《遠見》民調中心的調查結果廣被認為是公正、無偏見的。
戴立安在一場專訪內告訴美聯社，他無法確定馬辦是否施壓讓選舉民調部門關閉，不過他對整個事件，感到強烈的錯愕驚駭。
戴立安說：「公司管理階層說選舉民調引發太多風暴，所以他們決定要把這個部門關掉。」
「我們被關不是因為做不好。我們對自己的選舉調查模型深具信心。」
戴立安說，根據他的最新調查結果，反對黨民進黨主席、總統候選人蔡英文將會在明年一月十四日的總統大選以四到六個百分點勝出。這個差距仍在誤差範圍內。
遠見發言人王淑貞否認選舉民調部門被關是因為受到政治施壓，她說這純粹是商業考量。
王淑貞說：「我們公司自年初便開始改組，高階管理部門希望民調注重在社會、經濟和人文等遠見雜誌著重的議題。」
根據《自由時報》先前報導，馬辦經常質疑某家媒體的民調方式，並經常在這家媒體公布民調後毀謗中傷民調主持人。
《自由時報》也在另一篇評論表示，《遠見》選舉民調中心打烊，背後應有「政治性的不當外力」。
該報並未點名消息來源。底下附上英文Yahoo網址。
Taiwan pollster says his surveys ruffled feathers
http://news.yahoo.com/taiwan-pollster-says-surveys-ruffled-feathers-103531341.html
TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — A Taiwanese pollster said Monday that his election surveys caused "turbulence" and that's why his parent company pulled the plug on his election poll division after one of them favored the opposition presidential candidate.
The outgoing polling director of Global Views Magazine, Tai Li-an, stopped short of alleging that the shutdown was politically motivated, but an opposition newspaper hinted that President Ma Ying-jeou's campaign manager may have put pressure on the company.
The imbroglio over last week's closure of the company's 5 1/2-year-old polling center reflects the challenges local pollsters face in building credibility and publishing accurate polls in Taiwan. The island's public rarely trust polls published by media outlets because of the perception that they skew the results to boost the candidates they support.
Of the island's three big newspapers, two almost invariably support Ma's Nationalist Party, while the third just as invariably backs the opposition Democratic Progressive Party. Global Views had been regarded as leaning slightly toward the Nationalists, but unlike the newspapers, the work of its polling center was widely perceived as objective.
In an interview with The Associated Press, Tai said he could not be sure that Ma's campaign forced the closure of the organization's polling center, but he still expressed strong consternation over the move.
"The company management said political surveys have caused too much turbulence so it has decided to abandon the project," Tai said. "We are not being terminated because we have poor execution. We are very confident in our own poll model."
Tai said his most recent poll found main opposition Democratic Progressive Party Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen leading Ma by 4-6 percent in the Jan. 14 presidential race. That gap is still within the margin of error.
Tai said his survey was based on the same model he used for the 2008 presidential election, in which he accurately predicted Ma would score a landslide victory. In that election, Ma won 58 percent of all votes — one point less than Tai's forecast.
The most recent Global Views forecast is significantly different from the results of recent polls published by the two pro-Nationalist newspapers, which give Ma leads of 9 to 11 points.
A Global Views spokeswoman denied that political pressure was behind the move to close its political polling unit, saying it reflected purely commercial considerations.
"Our company has been restructuring its organization since the beginning of this year, and the senior management wants the survey center to focus more on social issues, economy and humanity — issues that our magazine is devoted to," Wang Shu-chen said.
On Monday the Liberty Times newspaper said Ma's campaign manager frequently questioned the polling methods of one unnamed media company and that after the organization's polling results were published, he usually cast aspersions on the company's director.
Last week the paper suggested "improper political pressure" was behind the Global Views move.
The Liberty Times did not cite a source for its reports.
（註：本篇專訪於十月十七日發佈，國內媒體沒有翻譯。常看美聯社報導的網友大概可以看出，雖然寫作小心翼翼，美聯對這件事用的字眼很重。）
